Geiger's Culture Counter: Who should win, will win the Oscars


The 90th Oscars are just around the corner, so you know what that means. Time to be an armchair critic! Even though the majority of us have never worked in show business, we obviously know better than those who do.

Chances are viewing parties all over will have some sort of Oscar prediction party game. Though I occasionally put on my own critic hat, this year I am just as knowledgeable as everyone else. Translation: not at all.

The only film I saw nominated for major Oscar awards this year was “Get Out” so I’ll try not to pick that movie for every category. I’ve done some minor research to see what the experts are saying but my biases may show. So if you use this list for your own home game, you might not do that great. You’ve been warned.

Best Actor

Who will win: Gary Oldman — Oldman has already won the SAG and the BAFTA for the same role so he’ll likely get it again for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour.”

Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya — Don’t get me wrong, I love Oldman in the “Dark Knight” and “Harry Potter” franchises, but domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife Donya Fiorentino have been resurfacing this awards season. Instead of a problematic win, let’s give it to the protagonist of “Get Out.”

Best Actress

Who will win: Frances McDormand — If I understand this right, the movie involves three billboards outside of the town of Ebbing, Missouri. But in all seriousness, like Oldman, McDormand already won multiple awards so it makes sense that the Academy would follow suit.

Who should win: Frances McDormand — She’s the best part of the Coen brother’s “Fargo” by far, which netted her an Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win: Sam Rockwell — I’ve never even heard of “The Florida Project” so instead of Willem Dafoe I’ll go with McDormand’s counterpart in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” From blockbusters like “Iron Man 2” to indie darlings such as “Moon,” Rockwell has proven he is dynamic.

Who should win: Christopher Plummer — After Kevin Spacey got into hot water for sexual misconduct he was removed from “All the Money in the World.” Plummer, who was Ridley Scott’s original choice for John Paul Getty, then filled in. He was able to do all of the reshoots in just nine days. That’s remarkable! I’m glad he got a nod so go ahead and give him the statue, too.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Allison Janney — I was too young to witness the 1994 Winter Olympics on television so I only vaguely know about Tonya Harding attacking Nancy Kerrigan. However, Janney as the antihero is apparently captivating.

Who should win: Laurie Metcalf — I’ve seen enough features, interviews and trailers with Metcalf that I feel like I’ve seen “Lady Bird.” In this battle of the moms it should go to the one that’s more endearing. Also she’s a hilarious mother in “The Big Bang Theory.”

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who will win: “Call Me By Your Name” — The 89-year-old James Ivory will likely get a deserved win for the coming-of-age love story that everyone is talking about.

Who should win: “Logan” — Hey, a guy can dream about a comic book movie winning a big Oscar, right?

Best Original Screenplay

Who will win: “Lady Bird” — Greta Gerwig fueled the chemistry between Metcalf and Saoirse Ronan with her writing and directing, so let’s award her for it.

Who should win: “The Big Sick” — It may be in the original category, but at the same time it’s an adaptation. Comedian couple Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon wrote the movie based on their own relationship. It’s the classic girl heckles guy’s standup, girl mysteriously falls into a coma, guy stays by her side in the hospital tale. What’s not to love?

Best Director

Who will win: Guillermo Del Toro — Though I regrettably missed it in theaters, Del Toro has yet to direct a film I didn’t like. His blend of magical realism and urban fantasy creates a marvelous aesthetic and I’m glad it’s being recognized. 

Who should win: Jordan Peele — To be honest I couldn’t decide which of the two names should go in which spot. This is a tough one. Even if I saw more than “Get Out” I would have it this high because Peele’s satirical horror flick is gripping. Can they just share the award?

Best Picture

Who will win: “The Shape of Water” — It leads the pack with 13 nominations. If that doesn’t scream best, what does? We need more fantasy movies to win “Best Picture,” especially if Doug Jones’ performance as the creature makes the internet go wild.

Who should win: “The Shape of Water” — See above.

Watch the ceremony Sunday to find out if my less than half-baked predictions come true. If you aren’t attending a viewing party and need your own game to follow along, I suggest downloading the “PostGrad Movies” podcast. There two of my friends from college will explain the rules to their bingo-themed activity and listeners could win a prize. Good luck!

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