SAN LUIS VALLEY — Labor shortage in agriculture is an increasing threat that ag producers confront at the ground level in day to day, season to season, bottom-line terms. But trying to deal with the cause of that shortage is a whole other ball game, for the reason a local farmer in San Luis Valley can’t hire enough workers is rooted in changes taking place thousands of miles away. And the shortage isn’t going to get any better.

No challenge can be successfully addressed until the cause of the problem is understood, the specifics of which Dr. Magaña outlined in his presentation “Causes of Labor Shortage in Agriculture” during the Southern Rocky Mountain Ag Conference held this week.

There’s no doubt the problem exists. Indications of a tighter farm labor market in the US are reflected in producer reports, an increase in the wages being paid and more applications for guest workers via H2-A visas.  But the major drop in unauthorized immigrants coming from Mexico tells the larger story.

For decades, a significant percentage of the immigrants from Mexico were employed in food production, comprising as much as 30% of all workers in the food industry and more than 50% in farming. Many came to the US without documentation, knowing they could get a job in agriculture, and the population went from 3 million people in 1990 to 12 million people at the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008. However, since 2008, that trend has been in sharp decline across the US and is now at the lowest level in 35 years.

Information from Immigration Customs and Border Patrol backs up that data. The apprehension of Mexican citizens at the southern border in 2019 were 10% of what they were in 2000. 

But countries of origin are changing, as well. The number of people immigrating from other areas, such as Central America, has increased by more than 25 times during those same years and now comprises more than 50% of all people coming into the country without documentation.

Likewise, the demographics are different. In 2012, 90% of unauthorized immigrants were single adults, typically coming to the US to work on a temporary basis to support families back home. Data from 2018 shows that more than one-third of all immigrants are “complete family units.”

Driving the change is the nature of life in Mexico, marked by a growing economy, urbanization and industrialization. The percent of the population in Mexico who work in agriculture has plunged from one in four to one in ten, creating more opportunities and better wages for rural workers and less of a need to go elsewhere to work.   

That shift is evident here. Since 2009, net migration from Mexico has dropped to less than zero, meaning more people are moving to Mexico from the US than the other way around.  “The US is now importing less inputs, such as labor, and importing more farm outputs, such as fresh fruits and vegetables,” Dr. Magaña said.

Magaña also predicts that a change in immigration policy will have minimal effect. Over the past twenty years, the birth rate in Mexico has dropped from a woman giving birth to seven children to giving birth to two. The income per capita is rising. While still low, the minimum wage has more than doubled over the last three years with many ag workers now earning three to four times minimum wage. “These are permanent changes. We will not have the same immigration rates again that we had in the 90s and early 2000s.”

Dr. Magaña emphasized that these changes are happening across the globe, citing China where the numbers of rural workers have declined by 50% due to urbanization and a growing middle class. The result will be a worldwide growing demand for labor, with countries in Central America – like Colombia – becoming increasingly relevant.

Generational changes also play into the mix. Millennials, the largest generation, are choosing to have fewer children at a later time in life, resulting in a shrinking population. The generation known as “Gen Z” is the best educated in US history with 57% of 18-21-year-olds in college and 50% of 7 to 17-year-olds having at least one parent with a college education. One of every four Gen Z-er is also Hispanic. Across those two generations, there is little interest in agriculture.

Nonetheless, Dr. Magaña offers two reasons to hope. “Innovation and education are the answer.”

For current producers, research and development, exploring various methods of mechanization, different and better cultivation practices and switching acreage to less labor-intensive products may play a part in adapting to fewer workers. Increasing wages, more feasible with more middle-class consumers wanting higher quality food, may also attract new workers. 

But, ultimately, the US needs to focus on cultivating its own agricultural workforce. Innovative, creative changes in education to grow interest in agriculture is crucial to growing the next generation of farmers.